Monday, September 15, 2008

What Next For the USA?

Few commentators seem to have focused on that fact that such a large proportion of US income and (apparent) wealth have been based on the profits of the financial industry. Now that these profits seem to have gone up in smoke it is difficult to see what will support the US economy in the future.
According to a report in the Economist, profits from the financial sector have in recent times accounted for 40% of the US total. Much of these profits turn out to have been nothing more than phantoms, effectively based on a speculative inflation in real estate and financial assets.
In the short term the financial industry has been, and will continue, to give these profits back as assets fall to lower levels. But this is not a short term problem. The economy will not bounce back as soon as the "liquidity crisis" is resolved or when housing prices stabilize. Levels of profit that we have seen in the financial industry will not be repeated in the foreseeable future.
It has long been said that the decline in US manufacturing is not a serious problem as we have become a successful "service economy" - this really just being a euphemism for surviving from profits of the financial industry.
The USA no longer has the production of goods and non-financial services to support our current living standards. As a result, the recession will be long and painful and MAY only ultimately terminated by a major re-orientation of industry.